In the past, Apple's management did not deliver the required business performance to support the price of the stock. As long as management uses Steve Jobs's campaigns in the media to increase the stock price, Apple will be a good trading stock.

Apple's management had a 52% chance(RBP probability) of delivering the performance to support a $42.09 stock price and had you invested according to this probability you would have earned a 59% return on your investment. However, Apple also had 48% chance(Risk indicator) of not delivering the performance to support the stock price and as you can see had you invested in the risk you would have earned a return of 148%.